The export of agricultural products enters 2026 with solid demand, more volatile logistics costs, and new regulatory requirements. For producers, packers, and traders in Latin America, understanding the numbers and running operations with precision is the difference between capturing margin or giving it up.
7 Key Facts Defining the Market in 2026
- Market size: Global agri-food trade surpassed US$2 trillion in 2023 and accounted for about 10% of total merchandise trade. Source: World Trade Organization (WTO), World Trade Statistical Review 2024.
- Leading exporters: In 2023, Brazil reached a record US$166.5 billion in agribusiness exports; the United States closed 2023 with around US$179 billion in agricultural exports. Sources: Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA/Secex) and USDA.
- Key importers: China, the European Union, and the United States remain the top importers by value; China’s agri-food purchases recently exceeded US$200 billion. Source: UN Comtrade/ITC; see also WTO reports.
- Logistics under pressure: The Red Sea crisis in 2024 drove spot container rates on Asia–Europe routes up by 200% to 300% and added 10–15 days to some transits, with "spillover" effects on other routes. Source: UNCTAD, 2024 reports on maritime disruptions.
- Post-harvest losses: Around 14% of food is lost before retail; fruits and vegetables are the most affected, eroding export profitability if the cold chain and processes are not fine-tuned. Source: FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) on food losses.
- Phytosanitary digitalization: Over 100 countries are integrated into the IPPC’s ePhyto system for electronic phytosanitary certificates, reducing time and documentation errors at borders. Source: IPPC ePhyto.
- Sustainability regulation: The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) applies from December 30, 2024 for large companies and from June 30, 2025 for SMEs, covering coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, palm oil, rubber, and timber (and some derivatives). It requires geographic traceability and due diligence. Source: European Commission.
2026 Opportunities: Where to Focus
- North America in fresh produce: U.S. imports of fruits and vegetables have grown steadily over the past decade, with avocado, berries, table grapes, peppers, and tomatoes leading. For Latin American exporters with counter-seasonal windows, price differentials and logistical proximity are key levers. Source: USDA ERS/FAS.
- European Union in value-added coffee and cocoa: The combination of stable demand and EUDR drives compliant and traceable origins to capture better prices with certifications and microlots. The EU is one of the largest global destinations for green coffee and cocoa products. Sources: ICO, European Commission.
- Middle East (GCC) in fruits and vegetables: The region imports a high proportion of its food (in several countries over 80%), with growth in the modern channel and a preference for quality product and stable supply. Source: FAO/World Bank; GCC national statistics.
- East Asia in proteins and processed foods: In addition to grains and oilseeds, demand is growing for tropical fruits, roasted coffee, and healthy snacks. Source: ITC Trade Map/UN Comtrade.
10 Concrete Actions to Boost Competitiveness This Year
- Adjust your market mix with data: Cross-check FOB/CIF prices, transit times, and tariffs by product–destination; prioritize routes with lower logistics variability in Q2–Q4 2026.
- Safeguard quality: Invest in pre-cooling, coatings, and modified atmosphere; reducing shrinkage by 2 points can add 1–3 points to net margin in fresh categories.
- Digitize documentation: Implement ePhyto and EDI with your shipping line/forwarder; reduce rejections and clearance times by 24–72 hours depending on the route.
- Contract freight in a hybrid way: Combine forward agreements for 60–70% of volume and spot for the rest; use contingency clauses for route deviations (Red Sea/Panama).
- Anticipate EUDR compliance (if applicable): Map georeferenced farm polygons, safeguard evidence of no deforestation, and validate your due diligence system with an external auditor.
- Diversify your offer: Add certifications with proven returns in your niche (e.g., Rainforest, Organic, GlobalG.A.P.) and communicate them in your technical sheet and quotation.
- Improve your forecast: Integrate weather and phenology into a 12–18 month S&OP; reduce freight overbooking and penalties for no-shows.
- Optimize commercial terms: Define Incoterms by client and country risk; in new destinations, start with letters of credit or export credit insurance.
- Manage MRL and SPS: Maintain an MRL matrix by destination and crop; align your application and harvest plan to avoid border rejections.
- Sell with data: Prepare quotes that show price history, expected yield, and compliance plan; shorten the sales cycle and improve conversion.
Practical Indicators for Your Monthly Dashboard
- Container fill rate and total shrinkage by route and week.
- Days to port and days to clearance by destination.
- % of phytosanitary certificates issued via ePhyto.
- % of lots with georeferenced traceability (if EUDR applies).
- MRL compliance by internal analysis vs. third-party lab.
- Spot rate variation vs. contract on critical routes.
How Sembrar Helps You
- Market intelligence and pricing: Product–destination analysis with prices, tariffs, and seasonality.
- Logistics optimization: Route and contract portfolio design, and contingency planning.
- Compliance and traceability: Preparation for EUDR, MRL, certifications, and ePhyto adoption.
- Commercial development: Buyer prospecting and qualification, and negotiation support.
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